Worst deal ever

Simple but Not Easy

The initial Iran peace agreement has been signed. It is the most humiliating national security episode since the British burned the White House. Democrats in Congress must insist that Congress vote upon any final agreement to be negotiated. And Democrats must be ready to reject that agreement. The status quo of a shaky ceasefire through 2029, with no terms settled, might be the best the country can get when the current commander-in-chief is this incompetent.

Here’s why the initial deal is so bad:

• Hands over hundreds of billions of dollars to Iran, with the thinnest of strings attached:

  • The United States & its allies put together a $300B fund for Iran’s economic development.

  • The U.S. Treasury immediately issues waivers to free up Iranian exports and allow it to access global financial services.

  • The United States “commits to ending” all sanctions on Iran, both its own for human rights violations and the United Nations’ & International Atomic Energy Agency’s.

  • The United States will make “fully available” to Iran its $100B in frozen assets.

• Makes no progress on nuclear enrichment, while taking off the table ballistic missiles, proxy terror funding, and regime moderation:

  • Iran merely reiterates its longstanding pledge not to develop a nuclear weapon.

  • By contrast, the United States proactively exempts from final negotiations Iran’s ballistic missile development; its funding of a network of militias, including Hezbollah; and its own brutality against the Iranian people.

• Accepts the new status quo of the Strait of Hormuz as an Iranian river, cementing new strategic deterrence for the regime:

  • The United States lifts its blockade and commits to ending all military action, including by Israel, which was not party to the agreement and is unlikely to feel bound by it. Thus the United States yields its most potent leverage, which is its own military might and its control of Israeli action.

  • Iran agrees to allow international transit through the Strait. However, Iran does not control the Strait under international law. By allowing Iran to ‘agree’ to open something that it had no right to close, the agreement codifies its control. There is no language prohibiting tolling after 60 days, and I expect the IRGC will then attempt to levy passage.

Anybody who criticized President Obama’s 2015 deal should be apoplectic about these terms. Actually, anybody who liked Obama’s deal should be furious, too. From beginning to end, this war has been a debacle.

Democrats must insist that any final agreement be authorized by Congress, as is required by the Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act of 2015. This was my position when Joe Biden was president, and it certainly remains so now. More to the point, though – Democrats must be ready to reject a final agreement.

Article nine of the memorandum states that “pending a final agreement, [Iran and the United States] will maintain the status quo.” The status quo of this ceasefire is bad, since it reflects both America’s weakened position and Trump’s fecklessness, but a final agreement that locks in the above terms for a generation would be worse. Better for Democrats to handcuff this commander-in-chief for the next two years, aiming for a more competent president to re-engage Iran in 2029, than to allow Trump to further embolden enemies, weaken allies, and undermine U.S. national security.