"Israel and Iran both have little incentive to stop and no obvious route to outright victory," writes The New York Times. "Much depends on President Trump." That should make no one feel better. This self-described 'dealmaker' was out-negotiated by the Chinese in 2017; the Taliban in 2020; and the Kremlin this year.
The problem is that we don't have a strong American president. Do we need more proof that his deal-making prowess is pure bunk? He's up against leaders who can run circles around him. Netanyahu knew that when he made the unilateral decision to attack Iran. Trump's advocacy for Russia at the G-7 meeting is yet another indication that he is in Putin's thrall. As Zelensky plainly stated, when you tell Trump something you are also talking to Putin. Moreover, as Heather Cox Richardson says so eloquently in her piece today, the wheels are starting to come off the Trump presidency. It is increasingly clear that people like Miller and Vought are pulling Trump's strings. For a cinematic reference see "Weekend at Bernie's".
In 1953 the CIA overthrew the democratically elected President of Iran and installed our ally, the Shah of Iran. That led directly to the Iranian revolution where the mullah's took control.
We should not encourage regime change again in Iran; let the Iranians sort it out. It seems that every time we change governments, in Guatemala, Chile, Argentina, Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan, it all ends badly.
I wish we did have a strong President-these are difficult times and he doesn't even come close to understanding such intricacies. Nor does he have anyone that surrounds him with common sense and strategic minds. We are in sinking waters. The Middle East is burning and he will only do what is good for him-that is my biggest fear. Since he is in Putin's pocket and pro Israeli a peaceful agreement with Iran will probably not work. I am a Blue Star mom with and active duty soldier. All this conflict makes me so worried.
I understand the desire to end Iran's nuclear weapon progress but if the US supplies (or uses) bunker buster bombs on the underground site, there is a high risk that Iran might decide to attack US targets in the Middle East or elsewhere. Then what? It's always good to anticipate how the other player might react, then how the US might react, etc.
You can’t say both 1) that we need to broadcast anti-regime messages to Iran, empower the opposition, etc. and 2) that “Only the Iranian people can decide to seize this moment for freedom” since you seem to have already decided that they should seize this moment (the moment being that they’re being bombed). Learn the lessons of Iraq and Afghanistan. You can’t force regime change, and especially not through bombs.
We need to use the "mostly peaceful" bunker-busting bombs and finally put an end to Iran's terrorist presence in the Middle East. As Trump has said, we have nothing against the people there. The regime and their nuclear ambitions need to go once and for all, and this is the best opportunity we have had to do that in over 40 years.
Iran did not start this war, Israel did. This lie is just part of Jake's obeisance to AIPAC. "Deals" with Israel - independent of the Prime Minister - are always broken by Israel.
"Regime change" is a terrible idea, tried before even in Iran, and the results are uniformly terrible. The "Abraham accords" are part of Trump I's geopolitical real estate dealings, designed to suppress Palestinian self-determination and support authoritarian rule in other Arab states. Remember Jared Kushner?
Iran clearly started this war via it's never ending decades of murderous attacks against Israel and Jews via all of it's proxy armies from Gaza to Lebanon to the AMIA bombing in Buenos Aires; a Jewish Community Centre. It was executed as a suicide attack when a bomb-laden van was driven into the AMIA building and subsequently detonated, murdering 85 people and injuring over 300.
"Palestinian" self determination will succeed when they choose to care more their children's lives than about killing Jews. So, not yet.
They were offered approx 98% of what they wanted plus land swaps to satisfy the rest. They walked without even a counteroffer. They currently have their own courts, judges, police, security services etc. What they don't have is the destruction of the Jewish State. It's not on the bargaining table and it never will be. You want a State you can have one; but you can't get it by destroying someone else's.
What you conveniently failed to mention is that Biden’s mishandling of Iran is what got us here. The freeing up of $100B in Iranian assets facilitated the ongoing financing of Iran’s terrorist proxy groups like Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis. His administration also unfroze $16B in oil assets for supposedly “humanitarian purposes” but most experts agree that those funds went directly to weapons purchases. While Biden instituted sanctions against Iran, those sanctions did not include China leaving Iran free to source weapons and drones from that country. These are the same weapons being used against Israel this week. Now you criticize Trump for
Biden, Biden Biden.... A lot of things Biden did were wrong, some were questionable and some were good. Biden ain't POTUS now.
And NOW we are talking about Iran's nuclear bomb aspirations.
Trump tore up the JCPOA, which was admittedly a lousy deal. But it was a deal and it could have been improved. Tearing it up allowed Iran to speed up and increase their uranium weaponization. Bombing Fordow etc was a good move by the Trump admin, but claiming complete obliteration was not.
Thank you for this, Jake. Everything you say makes so much sense - if only you could get both Trump and Netanyahu to think like you! At least now, as a liberal American Jew who loves Israel but believes the Palestinians deserve a better future, I know what to tell my friends...as they say, from your mouth to God's ear...may peace come soon!
I appreciate this well thought out strategy but regime change should not be our focus. I am not an isolationist but I am frustrated by the decrepit infrastructure- physical and legislative in our country. How do we change our own regime to respond to everyday Americans? How does healthcare become universal? How does housing and education become affordable? How do we support our domestic economy with sustainable infrastructure, energy production and manufacturing?
Yes, we (the US) hasn't had much luck with regime change going all the way back to Cuba...regime change sounds good but is far more complicated than it sounds. One needs to think a few steps ahead. Even just striking the nuclear targets, while I mostly support that, can lead to unexpected consequences. Not an easy decision for Trump of any President....
The sentiments are good ones. Unfortunately the solutions are much more complicated. The overthrow of the Shia regime in Teheran will more likely than not end up with a GCHQ government. That's worse. If America and allies are able to install a truly democratic gov in Iran it should be done. Right now we're a far cry from being able to do that. For now Iran needs to be isolated and it's gov undermined by democratic influence. It's going to take years and a lot of heavy lifting and investment.
The same problem with the PA above. If elections are held in the Pal territories it's a near guarantee that Hamas wins. It was the Bush Jr. admin that made that mistake in the first place, granting Hamas legitimacy, and we are still paying for it.
If you want progress for the Pals they need to be subjected to some type of a Marshall plan to ensure both de-Nazificatio and anti-corruption. The UAE could perhaps implement that and the Western powers could lend a hand and support. The Pals also have to agree to formally recognize the Jewish State of Israel, it's legitimacy and cease any and all terror and claims to it. This is at best a generation off. Unfortunately.
The problem is that we don't have a strong American president. Do we need more proof that his deal-making prowess is pure bunk? He's up against leaders who can run circles around him. Netanyahu knew that when he made the unilateral decision to attack Iran. Trump's advocacy for Russia at the G-7 meeting is yet another indication that he is in Putin's thrall. As Zelensky plainly stated, when you tell Trump something you are also talking to Putin. Moreover, as Heather Cox Richardson says so eloquently in her piece today, the wheels are starting to come off the Trump presidency. It is increasingly clear that people like Miller and Vought are pulling Trump's strings. For a cinematic reference see "Weekend at Bernie's".
In 1953 the CIA overthrew the democratically elected President of Iran and installed our ally, the Shah of Iran. That led directly to the Iranian revolution where the mullah's took control.
We should not encourage regime change again in Iran; let the Iranians sort it out. It seems that every time we change governments, in Guatemala, Chile, Argentina, Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan, it all ends badly.
well said re conflict resolution but sadly the right is deaf to thoughts from the left
I wish we did have a strong President-these are difficult times and he doesn't even come close to understanding such intricacies. Nor does he have anyone that surrounds him with common sense and strategic minds. We are in sinking waters. The Middle East is burning and he will only do what is good for him-that is my biggest fear. Since he is in Putin's pocket and pro Israeli a peaceful agreement with Iran will probably not work. I am a Blue Star mom with and active duty soldier. All this conflict makes me so worried.
I understand the desire to end Iran's nuclear weapon progress but if the US supplies (or uses) bunker buster bombs on the underground site, there is a high risk that Iran might decide to attack US targets in the Middle East or elsewhere. Then what? It's always good to anticipate how the other player might react, then how the US might react, etc.
From what I have read, Israel does not have the planes capable of delivering the bunker buster bombs...thus the "need" for US involvement. Scary!!!
You can’t say both 1) that we need to broadcast anti-regime messages to Iran, empower the opposition, etc. and 2) that “Only the Iranian people can decide to seize this moment for freedom” since you seem to have already decided that they should seize this moment (the moment being that they’re being bombed). Learn the lessons of Iraq and Afghanistan. You can’t force regime change, and especially not through bombs.
This reads like what a President might say. Might do. Might you?
We need to use the "mostly peaceful" bunker-busting bombs and finally put an end to Iran's terrorist presence in the Middle East. As Trump has said, we have nothing against the people there. The regime and their nuclear ambitions need to go once and for all, and this is the best opportunity we have had to do that in over 40 years.
Iran did not start this war, Israel did. This lie is just part of Jake's obeisance to AIPAC. "Deals" with Israel - independent of the Prime Minister - are always broken by Israel.
"Regime change" is a terrible idea, tried before even in Iran, and the results are uniformly terrible. The "Abraham accords" are part of Trump I's geopolitical real estate dealings, designed to suppress Palestinian self-determination and support authoritarian rule in other Arab states. Remember Jared Kushner?
Iran clearly started this war via it's never ending decades of murderous attacks against Israel and Jews via all of it's proxy armies from Gaza to Lebanon to the AMIA bombing in Buenos Aires; a Jewish Community Centre. It was executed as a suicide attack when a bomb-laden van was driven into the AMIA building and subsequently detonated, murdering 85 people and injuring over 300.
"Palestinian" self determination will succeed when they choose to care more their children's lives than about killing Jews. So, not yet.
They were offered approx 98% of what they wanted plus land swaps to satisfy the rest. They walked without even a counteroffer. They currently have their own courts, judges, police, security services etc. What they don't have is the destruction of the Jewish State. It's not on the bargaining table and it never will be. You want a State you can have one; but you can't get it by destroying someone else's.
Thanks for your reporting!
What you conveniently failed to mention is that Biden’s mishandling of Iran is what got us here. The freeing up of $100B in Iranian assets facilitated the ongoing financing of Iran’s terrorist proxy groups like Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis. His administration also unfroze $16B in oil assets for supposedly “humanitarian purposes” but most experts agree that those funds went directly to weapons purchases. While Biden instituted sanctions against Iran, those sanctions did not include China leaving Iran free to source weapons and drones from that country. These are the same weapons being used against Israel this week. Now you criticize Trump for
not cleaning up Biden’s mess. Hypocritical!
Biden, Biden Biden.... A lot of things Biden did were wrong, some were questionable and some were good. Biden ain't POTUS now.
And NOW we are talking about Iran's nuclear bomb aspirations.
Trump tore up the JCPOA, which was admittedly a lousy deal. But it was a deal and it could have been improved. Tearing it up allowed Iran to speed up and increase their uranium weaponization. Bombing Fordow etc was a good move by the Trump admin, but claiming complete obliteration was not.
Plenty of blame to go around.
Thank you for this, Jake. Everything you say makes so much sense - if only you could get both Trump and Netanyahu to think like you! At least now, as a liberal American Jew who loves Israel but believes the Palestinians deserve a better future, I know what to tell my friends...as they say, from your mouth to God's ear...may peace come soon!
No more American blood or tax dollars for an apartheid genocidal regime that tries to control our political system and politicians using AIPAC
I appreciate this well thought out strategy but regime change should not be our focus. I am not an isolationist but I am frustrated by the decrepit infrastructure- physical and legislative in our country. How do we change our own regime to respond to everyday Americans? How does healthcare become universal? How does housing and education become affordable? How do we support our domestic economy with sustainable infrastructure, energy production and manufacturing?
Regime change? Yikes man. What comes next? Been a painful road before
Yes, we (the US) hasn't had much luck with regime change going all the way back to Cuba...regime change sounds good but is far more complicated than it sounds. One needs to think a few steps ahead. Even just striking the nuclear targets, while I mostly support that, can lead to unexpected consequences. Not an easy decision for Trump of any President....
The sentiments are good ones. Unfortunately the solutions are much more complicated. The overthrow of the Shia regime in Teheran will more likely than not end up with a GCHQ government. That's worse. If America and allies are able to install a truly democratic gov in Iran it should be done. Right now we're a far cry from being able to do that. For now Iran needs to be isolated and it's gov undermined by democratic influence. It's going to take years and a lot of heavy lifting and investment.
The same problem with the PA above. If elections are held in the Pal territories it's a near guarantee that Hamas wins. It was the Bush Jr. admin that made that mistake in the first place, granting Hamas legitimacy, and we are still paying for it.
If you want progress for the Pals they need to be subjected to some type of a Marshall plan to ensure both de-Nazificatio and anti-corruption. The UAE could perhaps implement that and the Western powers could lend a hand and support. The Pals also have to agree to formally recognize the Jewish State of Israel, it's legitimacy and cease any and all terror and claims to it. This is at best a generation off. Unfortunately.