Ukraine, closer than ever

The West must not lose its will.

Ukraine last week launched a successful long-range drone attack against Moscow. A year ago, after another attack inside Russia, I wrote Strength first: how Ukraine could win. Since then, Ukraine has gotten stronger, and Trump & Putin have gotten weaker. Europe has been stepping up.

Let’s review my proposal from last year to see what must be done.

My first argument, which I initially made in the Washington Post in 2022, was that the West needs to affirm the definition of victory for Ukraine:

• a secure border;

• freedom of navigation in the Black Sea; and

• accession to the European Union.

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On all three fronts, Ukraine is closer than ever to victory.

Secure border:

It is increasingly accepted that a peace deal must freeze the line of conflict. Ukraine may cede russified territory to the east in exchange for sovereignty to the west.

Black Sea:

Russia’s Black Sea Fleet has been badly damaged and cannot blockade Ukraine. Its missiles, mines and drones still threaten Ukrainian ports and shipping, however. By hugging NATO waters, Ukraine exports grain and other goods through a corridor to the Bosphorus.

European Union:

This month, all 27 EU countries agreed to open the first set of negotiations with Ukraine. Ukraine wants to join this decade; the EU expects next decade. The German chancellor proposed a compromise of ‘associate membership.’ The Ukrainian president shot it down.

My second argument, which I initially made in the Wall Street Journal in 2024, was that the West must equip Ukraine to win this victory, not merely not lose by:

• investing in Ukraine’s military & industry using Russian frozen assets;

• crippling Russia’s oil economy through strikes & sanctions; and

• joining Ukraine into the European Union’s mutual defense clause.

All of this is happening, but none of it is happening fast or fully enough.

The European Union is sending loans & grants to Ukraine, partly financed with the interest from Russian frozen assets. The next step is for rich countries to become customers, not just donors. Ukraine now fields frontier drone & counter-drone technology & tactics. From the Gulf Arab states to Ireland, governments should be investing in & buying this next generation of defense.

While Ukraine’s war economy grows stronger, Russia’s gets weaker. Maritime insurance sanctions plus drone strikes on its oil refineries are costing it billions. They are also preventing Putin from pretending the war is costless to Moscow’s middle class.

NATO should support the maximum tempo of Ukrainian strikes on oil refineries. Europe and the United States should also crack down on the Russian shadow fleet of oil tankers. China, India and Turkey, meanwhile, must start paying penalties for importing Russian oil.

Through strength, peace can come. To win that peace, Ukrainians want EU membership. Their president’s dismissal of immediate associate membership was too hasty. Acceding to Article 42.7’s mutual defense clause, for example, could mitigate, both politically and defensively, Ukraine’s cession of parts of the Donbas to Russia. Associate membership would also yield deeper trade and investment ties with Europe. With rule of law upgrades, Ukraine will ultimately fully join the European Union.

Today’s geopolitics is full of bad news. But in Ukraine, the good guys are winning. The West must not lose its will.